Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.218775 2.329331 2.447059 2.582607 2.735476 2.903920 3.105542
2025-03-23 2.076509 2.231153 2.404739 2.617128 2.874637 3.183513 3.593744
2025-03-30 1.944048 2.116053 2.315027 2.567531 2.888108 3.295582 3.880521
2025-04-06 1.839077 2.019699 2.233076 2.511070 2.876394 3.362433 4.107495
2025-04-13 1.762597 1.949976 2.175249 2.475410 2.882047 3.446236 4.368493
2025-04-20 1.727646 1.927146 2.171814 2.506451 2.976663 3.664385 4.890428
2025-04-27 1.711846 1.925943 2.194060 2.571256 3.123387 3.982814 5.697426
2025-05-04 1.673445 1.893392 2.172693 2.573247 3.176691 4.160337 6.311315
2025-05-11 1.639100 1.863929 2.153041 2.575054 3.228334 4.342710 7.032538
2025-05-18 1.587967 1.810306 2.098009 2.521725 3.186864 4.349172 7.317511
2025-05-25 1.556039 1.780461 2.073565 2.511030 3.212504 4.485496 8.059917
2025-06-01 1.524590 1.749929 2.046559 2.494398 3.226018 4.599976 8.838096
2025-06-08 1.487733 1.712036 2.009240 2.462287 3.214269 4.669577 9.581680
2025-06-15 1.473835 1.704334 2.013574 2.493800 3.316240 5.009377 12.086240
2025-06-22 1.437118 1.664456 1.970672 2.449066 3.276875 5.017560 12.937037
2025-06-29 1.400577 1.623784 1.925220 2.398014 3.221763 4.978863 13.480025
2025-07-06 1.371739 1.592832 1.892616 2.365705 3.198828 5.016692 14.793869
2025-07-13 1.362579 1.588446 1.897844 2.393833 3.292020 5.376346 21.461608
2025-07-20 1.362486 1.596402 1.921079 2.452430 3.451814 5.988335 61.333305
2025-07-27 1.346672 1.581897 1.910580 2.454228 3.497391 6.282050 NaN
2025-08-03 1.331628 1.568008 1.900412 2.455859 3.542739 6.598441 NaN
2025-08-10 1.304205 1.536024 1.862184 2.407658 3.476780 6.495989 NaN
2025-08-17 1.287932 1.519459 1.846687 2.397978 3.494075 6.714822 NaN